Announcements

ECONOMICS SEMINAR - Ronald Gallant

Author: CASE
Time: 16:00
Location: CASE 127

KOC UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES AND ECONOMICS
ECONOMICS SEMINAR

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

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Speaker  : Ronald Gallant -Penn State University

Title        :  A Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Dynamic Models with Small and Large Number of Heterogeneous Players and Latent Serially Correlated States

Time       : 16:00-17:30
Place      : CASE 127

Date       : 16 May –Wednesday

Abstract: We propose a Bayesian approach to estimating dynamic models that can have state variables that are latent, serially correlated, and heterogeneous. Our approach employs  sequential importance sampling and is based on deriving an unbiased estimate of the likelihood within a Metropolis chain. Under fairly weak regularity conditions unbiased- ness guarantees that the stationary density of the chain is the exact posterior, not an approximation. Results are verified by Monte Carlo simulation using two examples. The first is a dynamic game of entry involving a small number of firms whose hetero- geneity is based on their current costs due to feedback through capacity constraints arising from past entry. The second is an Ericson-Pakes (1995) style game with a large number of firms whose heterogeneity is based on the quality of their products with firms competing through investment in product quality that affects their market share and profitability. Our approach facilitates estimation of dynamic games with either small or large number of players whose heterogeneity is determined by latent state variables, discrete or continuous, that are subject to endogenous feedback from past actions.