Author: CASE
Time: 16:00
Location: CASE 127

Wednesday, 14 March 2018


Speaker  : Murat Kırdar-  Boğaziçi University

Title        : The Labor Market Effects of the Massive Influx of Syrian Migrants in Turkey

Time       : 16:00-17:30
Place      : CASE 127

Date       : 14 March 2018 -Wednesday

Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the effect of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives using the 2004-15 Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys. We use a difference-in-differences methodology where the identification comes from the regional variation in the intensity of the shock across the 26 NUTS-2 regions in Turkey. We show the common-trend assumption typically forced in this literature makes an important and at times substantial difference in several outcomes in this context. On the other hand, several plausible instruments, also typically used in the literature, make very little difference in the OLS estimates. Some of the key findings are as follows. The negative effect of the supply shock on informal employment of native men, which exists only for wage workers, is offset by an equally large positive effect on formal employment which exists for wage workers, employers, and self-employed. Hence, total employment of men does not change. Wages of men in the formal sector also increase which, along with the increase in wage employment, is consistent with a positive shift of the labor demand curve in the formal sector.  On the other hand, we find no conclusive evidence of an effect of the migrant shock on employment or wages of women either in the formal or informal sector or on women’s total employment. However, when we conduct the analysis by education, we find evidence of a negative effect on employment of women with medium levels of education.